PC Shipments On Track For Historical Slump But There's A Silver Lining
Global PC shipments are in the midst of an "unprecedented slump" after what's to become a second consecutive year of big declines, once the final numbers are tallied. The historic slide sets the stage for what analyst firm International Data Corporation (IDC) says will be a "pivotal year for the PC market" when the calendar switches over to 2024.
"Given current conditions and a tenuous macroeconomic environment, IDC has lowered its forecast for the worldwide PC market. 2023 shipment volume is now expected to decline 13.8% compared to 2022, which itself declined 16.6% over the previous year. Two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year drops is an unprecedented trend in the PC market but will likely contribute to a recovery thereafter," IDC says.
According to IDC's auditing, global PC shipments came out to 68.5 million units in the third quarter of 2023. That's actually higher than what the firm was anticipating, but it's still down 7.2% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Or put another way, it could have been worse, but it also could have been much better.
Before anyone panics, though, the sky isn't falling. Ebbs and flows are normal, and everything is wonky as the world settles into something resembling normalcy in a post-pandemic state. Whatever that might entail, the PC is certainly not dead. It's not even on life support. In fact, even though the market is on track for eight consecutive quartesr of year-over-year volume declines, "it still pales in comparison to the 19 consecutive quarters of year-over-year PC declines from Q2 2012 to Q4 2016. So there's some context on the current slump.
Looking into 2024, IDC anticipates a recovery due in part to some overdue upgrades in the commercial sector.
"The vast and aging installed base of commercial PCs surpassing the four-year mark by 2024 is expected to necessitate a refresh, coinciding with the pressing demand to migrate toward Windows 11. The total PC market of 2024 should see growth of 3.4% compared to 2023," IDC adds.
IDC also brought up artificial intelligence (AI) as being a "catalyst for upgrades" next year. And make no mistake, AI-powered PCs are coming. They've already started arriving with the release of Intel's Core Ultra processors based on Meteor Lake.
It's not just consumer PCs, either. IDC anticipates a recovery among consumer PC shipments. With all these factors at play, the analyst agency expects the market will skip ahead of pre-pandemic shipment levels en route to 285 million units by 2027.
